Trump now leads with a 55% chance of winning the presidency in November, compared to Harris’ 45%.
Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points in the 2024 presidential race, according to data from the Polymarket prediction platform.
Compared to earlier betting odds in September, when Harris had the edge, this represents a major change.
According to the most recent figures from Polymarket, Trump has a 55% chance of winning the presidency in November, while Harris’s is 45%.
Trump Leads in Key Swing States
Important swing states have also seen a reversal, with Trump now leading in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
The states with the largest margins in Trump’s favor are Arizona and Georgia, which are significant battlegrounds for the Republican nominee.
Amidst persistent conjecture about the impending election, Trump’s standing in the polls has increased.
Financial analyst Jim Cramer provided an alternative viewpoint, projecting that Harris would prevail in the 2024 contest despite his increasing momentum.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins,” Cramer stated during an Oct. 11 broadcast.
His remarks sparked debate on social media, especially among cryptocurrency traders who frequently bring up the idea of the “inverse Cramer effect”—the theory that forecasts made by Cramer typically come to pass.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 11, 2024
– Jim Cramer
Inverse Cramer … Trump victory locked in. pic.twitter.com/WPEq7wjiDu
Trump has been vocal in his support of the cryptocurrency industry, which has led to his growing popularity on Polymarket.
Trump gained notoriety in September when, at a New York campaign event, he paid for hamburgers with Bitcoin, ostensibly to court cryptocurrency supporters.
World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) initiative with its own native token, was also recently launched by his campaign.
Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrency has elicited a range of responses.
Because of its DeFi structure, journalist Nic Carter suggested that the project might put Trump’s campaign at risk by becoming a target for hackers.
Some experts, like 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero, minimize the effect of the election on cryptocurrency prices.
In a recent prediction, Tapiero said that Bitcoin might hit $100,000 no matter who wins the 2024 election.
Over 87% of Polymarket Crypto Wallets Did Not Make a Profit
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, most users have not been able to make any money.
According to reports, 149,383 (or 87.3%) of the 171,113 active cryptocurrency wallets on the platform did not show a profit. A mere 21,730 wallets, or 12.7% of all wallets, produced positive returns.
For the majority of the profitable wallets, the earnings are still modest.
Most wallets saw gains of less than $100, but 2,138 saw gains of more than $1,000.
Substantial returns are comparatively uncommon on the platform, as evidenced by the 7,400 additional wallets that reported profits in the $100 to $1,000 range.
Leading news and financial data source Bloomberg LP plans to integrate election odds information from cryptocurrency betting site Polymarket into its popular Terminal.
Using the Polygon network, Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market that has grown to be a well-known source for tracking current election odds.
With the use of smart contracts for trade execution and payouts, as well as transparent on-chain data, the platform enables users to wager on a variety of event outcomes.