Both a Harris and a Trump administration could be bullish for Bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency community is keeping a careful eye on how the impending election will affect the sector.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has adopted a more circumspect posture since entering the contest, in contrast to former President Donald Trump, who has dubbed himself the “crypto president” and actively promoted the industry.
While both a Trump and a Harris administration could be bullish for Bitcoin, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, an analyst at the firm, believe that the broader digital asset market may face different outcomes under their leadership.
Harris Presidency Might be Better for Prices
VanEck presented a scenario in which Gary Gensler, the SEC Chair who is well-known for his strict views on cryptocurrency regulation, might be retained under a Harris presidency.
The combination of this and Harris’s alignment of her financial policies with the Democratic party’s more regulatory-focused wing, symbolized by Senator Elizabeth Warren, may make it difficult for institutions to adopt digital assets.
A regulatory environment like this might hinder industry innovation and expansion, which would be detrimental to the expansion of the cryptocurrency market.
For those who are passionate about Bitcoin, there is a bright side.
VanEck hypothesized that, ironically, a Harris presidency might be better for Bitcoin than a Trump one.
The company contended that more investors might turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty as a result of structural problems that Harris might have made worse, such as higher government spending and tighter regulations.
This may increase the allure and competitiveness of Bitcoin relative to other digital assets.
However, VanEck’s research revealed that a second Trump term might be more advantageous for the cryptocurrency sector as a whole.
More deregulation and business-friendly policies are anticipated under a Trump presidency, which may be especially advantageous to cryptocurrency entrepreneurs.
The company thinks that under such an administration, there would be less regulatory oversight of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, which would foster an atmosphere that is more favorable for development and innovation.
Bernstein Expects Bitcoin to Surge if Trump Wins
Not everyone shares this view, though.
A report from Bernstein projects a rise in Bitcoin’s price, potentially reaching between $80,000 and $90,000, if Trump wins the election.
On the other hand, if Harris wins, they forecast a decline, with Bitcoin perhaps reaching the $30,000–$40,000 mark.
Regardless of the outcome, the overall macroeconomic trend seems to favor Bitcoin, notwithstanding divergent views on the candidates.
VanEck predicts that the United States will probably keep going down a path of increasing national debt and budget deficits, which will make the dollar weaker.
Such circumstances have historically favored Bitcoin, which is seen by many investors as a hedge against economic instability and a store of value.
Regardless of the outcome of the US election, investment bank Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has stated that Bitcoin is predicted to close the year at all-time highs.
By the end of 2024, according to Kendrick, Bitcoin might hit new all-time highs because of “positive drivers dominating regardless of the election outcome.”
“I think Bitcoin ends the year higher, at new all-time highs, no matter who wins the U.S. election, with a Trump win taking it to $125,000 and $75,000 if it’s Harris.”